All posts by synergy

AI and Automated Mortgage Loan Decisions – An Update

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Four federal agencies jointly pledged today to uphold America’s commitment to the core principles of fairness, equality, and justice as emerging automated systems, including those sometimes marketed as “artificial intelligence” or “AI,” have become increasingly common in our daily lives – impacting civil rights, fair competition, consumer protection, and equal opportunity.

The Civil Rights Division of the United States Department of Justice, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Federal Trade Commission, and the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission released a  joint statement outlining a commitment to enforce their respective laws and regulations.

All four agencies have previously expressed concerns about potentially harmful uses of automated systems and resolved to vigorously enforce their collective authorities and to monitor the development and use of automated systems.

“Technology marketed as AI has spread to every corner of the economy, and regulators need to stay ahead of its growth to prevent discriminatory outcomes that threaten families’ financial stability,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “Today’s joint statement makes it clear that the CFPB will work with its partner enforcement agencies to root out discrimination caused by any tool or system that enables unlawful decision making.”

“We have come together to make clear that the use of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, must be consistent with federal laws,” said Charlotte A. Burrows, Chair of the EEOC. “America’s workplace civil rights laws reflect our most cherished values of justice, fairness and opportunity, and the EEOC has a solemn responsibility to vigorously enforce them in this new context. We will continue to raise awareness on this topic; to help educate employers, vendors, and workers; and where necessary, to use our enforcement authorities to ensure AI does not become a high-tech pathway to discrimination.”

“We already see how AI tools can turbocharge fraud and automate discrimination, and we won’t hesitate to use the full scope of our legal authorities to protect Americans from these threats,” said FTC Chair Lina M. Khan. “Technological advances can deliver critical innovation—but claims of innovation must not be cover for lawbreaking. There is no AI exemption to the laws on the books, and the FTC will vigorously enforce the law to combat unfair or deceptive practices or unfair methods of competition.”

“As social media platforms, banks, landlords, employers, and other businesses that choose to rely on artificial intelligence, algorithms and other data tools to automate decision-making and to conduct business, we stand ready to hold accountable those entities that fail to address the discriminatory outcomes that too often result,” said Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division. “This is an all hands on deck moment and the Justice Department will continue to work with our government partners to investigate, challenge, and combat discrimination based on automated systems.”

Today’s joint statement follows a series of CFPB actions to ensure advanced technologies do not violate the rights of consumers. Specifically, the CFPB has taken steps to protect consumers from:

Black box algorithms: In a May 2022, circular the CFPB advised that when the technology used to make credit decisions is too complex, opaque, or new to explain adverse credit decisions, companies cannot claim that same complexity or opaqueness as a defense against violations of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act.

Algorithmic marketing and advertising: In August 2022, the CFPB issued an interpretive rule stating when digital marketers are involved in the identification or selection of prospective customers or the selection or placement of content to affect consumer behavior, they are typically service providers under the Consumer Financial Protection Act. When their actions, such as using an algorithm to determine who to market products and services to, violate federal consumer financial protection law, they can be held accountable.

Abusive use of AI technology: Earlier this month, the CFPB issued a policy statement to explain abusive conduct. The statement is about unlawful conduct in consumer financial markets generally, but the prohibition would cover abusive uses of AI technologies to, for instance, obscure important features of a product or service or leverage gaps in consumer understanding.

Digital redlining: The CFPB has prioritized digital redlining, including bias in algorithms and technologies marketed as AI. As part of this effort, the CFPB is working with federal partners to protect homebuyers and homeowners from algorithmic bias within home valuations and appraisals through rulemaking.

Repeat offenders’ use of AI technology: The CFPB proposed a registry to detect repeat offenders. The registry would require covered nonbanks to report certain agency and court orders connected to consumer financial products and services. The registry would allow the CFPB to track companies whose repeat offenses involved the use of automated systems.

The CFPB has also launched a way for tech workers to blow the whistle. The CFPB encourages engineers, data scientists and others who have detailed knowledge of the algorithms and technologies used by companies and who know of potential discrimination or other misconduct within the CFPB’s authority to report it. CFPB subject-matter experts review and assess credible tips, and the CFPB’s process ensures that all credible tips receive appropriate analysis and investigation.

The CFPB will continue to monitor the development and use of automated systems, including AI-marketed technology, and work closely with the Civil Rights Division of the DOJ, FTC, and EEOC to enforce federal consumer financial protection laws and to protect the rights of American consumers, regardless of whether legal violations occur through traditional means or advanced technologies.

The CFPB will also release a white paper this spring discussing the current chatbot market and the technology’s limitations, its integration by financial institutions, and the ways the CFPB is already seeing chatbots interfere with consumers’ ability to interact with financial institutions.

Read today’s Joint Statement on Enforcement Efforts Against Discrimination and Bias in Automated Systems. 

Read Director Chopra’s Prepared Remarks on the Interagency Enforcement Policy Statement on “Artificial Intelligence.”

Consumers can submit complaints about other financial products and services, by visiting the CFPB’s website or by calling (855) 411-CFPB (2372).

Employees who believe their company has violated federal consumer financial laws, including violations involving advanced technologies, are encouraged to send information about what they know to whistleblower@cfpb.gov. To learn more about reporting potential industry misconduct, visit the CFPB’s website.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is a 21st-century agency that helps consumer finance markets work by making rules more effective, by consistently and fairly enforcing those rules, and by empowering consumers to take more control over their economic lives. For more information, visit www.consumerfinance.gov.

Source: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-federal-partners-confirm-automated-systems-advanced-technology-not-an-excuse-for-lawbreaking-behavior/

CFPB Enforcement Actions – Learn from Other’s Mistakes

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) permanently banned RMK Financial Corporation, which does business as Majestic Home Loans, from the mortgage lending industry by prohibiting RMK from engaging in any mortgage lending activities or receiving remuneration from mortgage lending. In 2015, the CFPB issued an agency order against RMK for, among other things, sending advertisements to military families that led the recipients to believe the company was affiliated with the United States government. Despite the 2015 order’s prohibition on these and other actions, the company engaged in a series of repeat offenses, including disseminating millions of mortgage advertisements to military families that deceptively used fake U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) seals, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) logo, and other language or design elements to falsely imply that RMK was affiliated with the government. In addition to the ban, RMK will also pay a $1 million penalty that will be deposited into the CFPB’s victims relief fund.

“Even after the 2015 law enforcement order, RMK continued to lie to military families by falsely implying government endorsement of its home loans,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “Our action reflects our commitment to weed out repeat offenders, and we are shutting down this outfit for good.”

RMK is a privately held corporation with its principal place of business in Ontario, California. RMK is a nonbank that is licensed as a mortgage broker or lender in at least 30 states and Puerto Rico. RMK originates consumer mortgages, including mortgages guaranteed by the VA and mortgages insured by the FHA. However, RMK is affiliated with neither government agency.

In 2015, the CFPB took action against RMK to end its use of deceptive mortgage advertising practices, including advertisements that led potential homebuyers to believe that the company was affiliated with the VA or FHA. RMK sent these deceptive advertisements to tens of thousands of military families as well as to other holders of VA-guaranteed mortgages. In addition to paying a fine, RMK was required to end its illegal and deceptive practices.

The CFPB has previously warned about VA home loan scams. Many servicemembers, veterans, and military spouses receive fraudulent calls and mailers from companies claiming to be affiliated with the government, the VA, or their home loan servicer.

In the case of RMK, the CFPB found that the company disseminated millions of mortgage advertisements to military families that made deceptive representations or contained inadequate or impermissible disclosures in violation of the 2015 order, the Consumer Financial Protection Act, the Mortgage Acts and Practices Advertising Rule, and the Truth in Lending Act. Specifically, the company harmed military families and other consumers by sending millions of advertisements for mortgages that:

Tricked military families about the government’s role in sending the advertisements or providing the loans: RMK sent advertisements that misrepresented that RMK was, or was affiliated with, the VA or the FHA, that the VA or FHA sent the notices, or that the advertised loans were provided by the VA or FHA. Military families or others who view such advertisements may decide to purchase the advertised mortgage based on the trust they have in the government agencies.

Deceived borrowers about interest rates and key terms: RMK’s advertisements illegally disclosed a simple annual interest rate more conspicuously than the annual percentage rate, illegally advertised unavailable credit terms, and used the name of the homeowner’s current lender in a misleading way. Consumers who view such advertisements may be misled about the terms being offered or mistakenly believe their current lender is sending the advertisement.

Falsely misrepresented loan requirements and lied about projected savings from refinancing: RMK’s advertisements misrepresented that the benefits available to those who qualified for VA or FHA loans were time limited. Additionally, RMK’s advertisements misrepresented that military families could obtain VA cash-out refinancing loans without an appraisal and without incurring the cost of an appraisal, that an appraisal was not a condition of qualifying for VA cash-out refinancing loans, and that no minimum credit score and no income verification were required to qualify for VA cash-out refinancing loans. Finally, RMK’s advertisements misrepresented the amount of monthly payments, the annual savings under the advertised loans, and the cash available in connection with the advertised loans.

Enforcement Action

Under the Consumer Financial Protection Act, the CFPB has the authority to take action against institutions violating federal consumer financial protection laws, including the Truth in Lending Act, which is intended to ensure that consumers can compare credit terms more readily and knowledgeably. Today’s order requires RMK to:

Exit the mortgage lending business: RMK is permanently banned from engaging in any mortgage lending activities, including advertising, marketing, promoting, offering, providing, originating, administering, servicing, or selling mortgage loans, or otherwise participating in or receiving remuneration from mortgage lending, or assisting others in doing so.

Pay a $1 million fine: RMK must pay a $1 million penalty to the CFPB, which will be deposited into the CFPB’s victims relief fund.

Today’s action is one in a series of actions the CFPB is taking to halt repeat offenders, particularly those that violate agency and court orders. The CFPB recently proposed a registry to detect repeat offenders in the financial marketplace. The action also complements broader efforts, including rulemaking by the Federal Trade Commission, to deter government and business impersonator scams.

Read today’s order.

Read I am a servicemember or veteran and I have decided to purchase a home. How do I know if a VA loan is the right fit for me?

Read more about VA loans.

Learn more about mortgage protections for veterans.

Consumers can submit complaints about financial products and services by visiting the CFPB’s website or by calling (855) 411-CFPB (2372).

Employees who believe their companies have violated federal consumer financial protection laws, including the Truth in Lending Act, are encouraged to send information about what they know to whistleblower@cfpb.gov. To learn more about reporting potential industry misconduct, visit the CFPB’s website.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is a 21st century agency that helps consumer finance markets work by making rules more effective, by consistently and fairly enforcing those rules, and by empowering consumers to take more control over their economic lives. For more information, visit www.consumerfinance.gov.

Source: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-shuts-down-mortgage-loan-business-of-rmk-financial-for-repeat-offenses-against-military-families/

Why Are Mortgage Zombie Loans of Interest to the CFPB

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“CFPB”) recently issued advisory guidance on the enforcement of time-barred mortgage loans.  A time-barred mortgage loan is one where the statute of limitations has expired.  The statute of limitations for mortgage loans are typically created by state law, and vary by jurisdiction.  In some cases, they create an affirmative defense for the consumer that prohibits a debt collector from suing to collect the debt.  In other cases, judicial foreclosure actions are also subject to a statute of limitations.  The CFPB indicated that its opinion was issued in light of a series of actions by debt collectors attempting to foreclose on “silent second mortgages,” also known as “zombie mortgages,” that consumers thought were satisfied long ago and may now be unenforceable. 

The CFPB attributes this trend to practices that occurred in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, when to make home purchases affordable, some lenders coupled first mortgage loans with second mortgage loans.  These “piggyback” mortgages often involved a primary mortgage for 80% of a property’s value, with a second mortgage for the remaining 20%.  During the financial crisis, struggling borrowers paid their first mortgage loans, but failed to pay their second mortgage loans.  According to the CFPB, many lenders did not pursue collection on the second mortgages during the financial crisis, due to declining home values, which meant that in a foreclosure no sale proceeds would remain after payment of the first mortgage.  Instead, lenders sold their second mortgage loans for a fraction of their value.  The CFPB alleges that, over a decade later, and without any intervening communication to borrowers, debt collectors are now demanding the second mortgage balance, interest, and fees and are threatening foreclosure on borrowers that do not pay.

In the advisory guidance, the CFPB states that it is illegal to sue or threaten to sue to collect on time-barred zombie mortgages.  The CFPB states that debt collectors that nonetheless attempt to do so may be in violation of the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (“FDCPA”) and Regulation F, warning that:

The FDCPA and its implementing Regulation F prohibit a debt collector from suing or threatening to sue to collect time-barred debt, and

The prohibition applies even if the debt collector does not know that the debt is time-barred.

Debt collectors should review the applicable statutes of limitations for jurisdictions in which they are collecting and confirm they know the age of their loans to reduce compliance risk.  They should also be mindful that another issue identified by the CFPB was debt collectors’ failure to sufficiently communicate with borrowers.  Debt collectors dealing with older loans where the statute of limitations has not run should consider attempting additional communications with borrowers before initiating foreclosure proceedings, to mitigate borrower surprise and to avoid increased attention from the CFPB.

Source: https://www.consumerfinancemonitor.com/2023/05/11/cfpb-takes-aim-at-sniping-zombie-mortgage-loans/

A Surprising Sign That Home Prices May Finally Take a Plunge This Summer

After a few years of flying high, home prices are finally coming back down to earth with a thud. In fact, the prospect of an outright price drop is looming on the horizon, according to a new Realtor.com report.

In March, real estate listing prices came in nationwide at a median of $424,000, down from June’s all-time record high of $449,000.

And while this March’s prices are 6.3% higher than in March 2022, that price growth is tapering off, marking “the lowest rate of growth since June 2020, in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic,” notes Danielle Hale, Realtor.com® chief economist, in her analysis.

A closer look at spring’s softening home prices

Given that home prices have been running hard and high throughout much of the pandemic, why are they showing signs of losing steam right in the buildup to the busy spring homebuying season?

One clear culprit is mortgage rates, which have more than doubled over the past year—from under 3% to well above 6% for a fixed-rate 30-year loan. Played out in monthly mortgage payments, financing 80% of a typical home today costs an average of $611 (or 39.3%) more, compared to just last year.

This has put a serious crimp in what homebuyers can afford—and, in turn, is forcing sellers to lower their expectations and asking prices. As Hale puts it, home sellers have “gradually adjusted to softer market conditions.”

Many sellers budged, albeit grudgingly, disappointed that they missed the market’s peak.

“While it’s technically more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s market, it doesn’t really feel that way to sellers,” says Brian Davis, who teaches real estate investment courses at SparkRental. “Many sellers just aren’t getting what they want for their homes right now.”

Inside the home-seller dilemma

Sellers facing a relatively lackluster spring season have three choices.

“Some will simply remove their listings from the market,” says Davis. And that’s exactly what many are doing. In March, the number of new listings fell by 20.1%, compared to this same month a year earlier.

As for the sellers who remain in the game, there are still two tough choices to make.

“Some will lower their prices to attract offers,” says Davis.

Indeed, 12.6% of March home sellers made price cuts. That’s more than double the number who slashed their asking prices this same month last year (5.8%).

As for the third group, “sellers who can afford to be patient can simply list their home for the price they want and wait,” says Davis. “But they might end up waiting for a long time.”

And the numbers bear this out. In March, real estate listings lingered an average of 54 days on the market, 18 days longer than last year.

“That stagnation indicates to me that home prices have further to dip, at least in some markets,” Davis says, adding that he thinks the prospects look grim, regardless of what the economy does next.

“The only reason the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates this year is if a recession hits, and they need to stimulate economic growth,” he reasons. “That leaves sellers between the rock of high interest rates and the hard place of a recession—both of which historically dampen home prices.”

Source: https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/surprising-sign-home-prices-could-plunge-this-summer/

Which Directions are Home Prices Headed ?

US home prices, according to S&P CoreLogic’s Case-Shiller index, fell for the 7th straight month (-0.42% MoM) leaving the home price index up 2.55% YoY (in January – this data is always very lagged) – the lowest growth since Nov 2019.

“One of the most interesting aspects of January’s report is the continued weakness in home prices on the West Coast, as San Diego and Portland joined San Francisco and Seattle in negative year-over-year territory,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.

“It’s therefore unsurprising that the Southeast (+10.2%) continues as the country’s strongest region, while the West (-1.5%) continues as the weakest.” San Francisco and Seattle are down the most from their highs (New York and Miami are down the least). Home prices in Miami and Tampa are still up over 60% since COVID.

We suspect that is what Powell is hoping for, and judging by mortgage rates, prices have a long way to fall.

Source : https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/delay-your-home-purchase-bob-shiller-warns-prices-slide-7th-straight-month

CFPB Issues HUGE Fine for This Illegal Practice in the Mortgage Industry

March 23 (Reuters) – A Virginia debt collection company has agreed to pay $24 million over allegedly illegal practices, the top U.S. agency for consumer financial protection said on Thursday, adding that the company had violated a previous order.

Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said Portfolio Recovery Associates had been “caught red handed” in 2015, but had persisted in “intimidation, deception and illegal … tactics” to collect on unsubstantiated and undocumented consumer debt in recent years.

“CFPB orders are not suggestions, and companies cannot ignore them simply because they are large or dominant in the market,” Chopra added. Portfolio Recovery Associates said it had admitted to no wrongdoing.

In 2015 the CFPB ordered Portfolio Recovery Associates to cease collecting on debts without reasonable basis, selling debt, or threatening to sue or suing when it had no intent to prove the claims. The company agreed to pay $27 million to resolve the allegations.

The CFPB on Thursday said the company broke a number of provisions related to that order. The $24 million payment agreement includes a fine, as well as repayment to consumers harmed, pending court approval.

In a statement, Portfolio Recovery Associates said it was committed to dealing fairly and respectfully with its clients.

“Although we have admitted to no wrongdoing as part of the resolution, and we continue to disagree with the CFPB’s characterization of our conduct, we are pleased to have this matter resolved and behind us,” Kevin Stevenson, president and chief executive of parent company PRA Group Inc (PRAA.O), said in a statement.

Source : https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-watchdog-orders-virginia-debt-collector-pay-24-mln-illegal-practices-2023-03-23/

Did Fannie Just Create A New Job Opportunity ?

Fannie Mae Just Created a New Real Estate Career with their New Appraisal Waiver Program

Fannie Mae’s Value Acceptance + Property Data program, set to launch on April 15, 2023, has cast a shadow over the appraisal industry’s future, potentially marking the beginning of the end for licensed appraisers.

The program aims to transform mortgage loans by replacing traditional appraisals with assessments conducted by unlicensed “Property Data Collectors,” and many are questioning whether this is the first step in eliminating appraisers altogether.

Appraisal Waiver Program Explained

Value Acceptance + Property Data expands upon Fannie Mae’s 2017 appraisal waiver program, providing a more extensive data-driven approach to property valuation. The new program combines automated valuation models (AVMs) with additional property data collected by non-licensed inspectors, currently limited to single-unit properties.

Critics argue AVMs cannot replace licensed appraisers’ expertise, and using non-licensed Property Data Collectors raises concerns about assessment quality and consistency.

Property Data Collectors visit properties to perform data collection using one of Fannie Mae’s six approved apps that meet their Property Data Standard. These individuals must identify safety, soundness, or structural integrity issues and items of incomplete construction or renovation. However, they don’t require a license, raising questions about qualifications and industry impact.

Requirements to Become a Property Data Collector

Fannie Mae requires lenders to vet Property Data Collectors by verifying their background, providing professional training, and ensuring they possess the essential knowledge for competent data collection. However, the lack of a licensing requirement leaves the profession largely unregulated, with the scope of “professional training” left to the lender. This absence of regulation raises concerns about data collection quality, consistency, conflicts of interest, and biased assessments.

Lenders must ensure data collectors comply with fair lending laws and deliver unbiased, accurate results. Lenders are required to ensure that Property Data Collectors have received Fair Housing training, the scope of which has also been left entirely to the lender. However, without standardized licensing, maintaining consistent quality across the profession may prove difficult, potentially resulting in inaccurate assessments and skewed property values.

Potential Impacts on the Housing Market and Appraisal Profession

As more loans bypass traditional appraisals, property value inaccuracies may increase, leading to higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, increased default risk, and possibly another housing market crash like in 2008. The absence of a strong foundation in property values could erode trust in the mortgage system, impacting the entire housing market.

The introduction of unlicensed property inspectors in the Value Acceptance + Property Data program could signify the appraisal profession’s decline. As more loans are processed without licensed appraisers, the demand for their services may diminish, jeopardizing their careers and livelihoods.

In conclusion, Fannie Mae’s Value Acceptance + Property Data program poses a risk to the mortgage industry and licensed appraisers’ future. By replacing traditional appraisals with unlicensed property inspector assessments, this program threatens property value foundations and could potentially destabilize the housing market. As the industry navigates this new program’s implications, the future of mortgage lending and the appraisal profession hangs in the balance.

Source: https://www.skylineschool.net/post/fannie-mae-just-created-a-new-real-estate-career-with-their-new-appraisal-waiver-program

Latest Developments on VA Loan Appraisals

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed HR 7735, Improving Access to the VA Home Loan Benefit Act of 2022, a measure that would direct the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to update their regulations on appraisals. They would be required to consider when an appraisal is not necessary, and when a desktop appraisal should be utilized.

Introduced by Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois, HR 7735 would enhance VA’s home loan program by streamlining the home buying process for veterans and their families. HR 7735 would ease the home buying process by allowing the nation’s veterans to use the same modern purchaser tools that non-veteran buyers already use.

The VA home loan program has afforded millions of servicemembers, veterans, and their families the opportunity to become homeowners, a benefit that has empowered U.S. veterans with the resources they need to purchase, retain, and adapt homes at a competitive interest rate, and helps to ease the transition from active duty to civilian life. While VA’s home loan program has historically performed well and assisted many nationwide in achieving homeownership, it has not kept pace with today’s homebuying practices in certain ways. Veterans using a VA home loan are required to have an in-person appraisal performed by a VA-approved appraiser prior to purchasing their home. However, there are often lengthy wait times for the relatively few VA-approved appraisers to become available to perform these appraisals, resulting in in veterans being forced to wait longer to complete the homebuying process, and move into their new home.

“The bill will encourage important reforms to the agency’s requirements regarding when an appraisal is necessary, how appraisals are conducted, and who is eligible to conduct an appraisal,” said Bob Broeksmit, CMB, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). “This legislation is an important first step towards broad modernization of VA appraisal processes and could make veterans’ home purchase offers more viable in today’s competitive housing market.”

Now that HR 7735 has passed the house, its companion bill in the Senate, S4208, the Improving Access to the VA Home Loan Act of 2022, introduced in May 2022 by Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska awaits passage.

“VA home loans have given millions of veterans and their families the opportunity to purchase a home,” said Rep. Bost. “Yet, on average, veterans wait longer and pay more during the closing process due to VA’s out-of-date appraisal requirements. That’s why I am introducing the Improving Access to the VA Home Loan Act of 2022 with my friend, Senator Sullivan. This bill will make sure that veterans are not unfairly disadvantaged during the home buying process and allow for a modern, digital appraisal process, which will get them into their new home faster.”

Source:https://themreport.com/daily-dose/09-15-2022/house-passes-bill-modernize-va-appraisals

Mortgage Rates Are Headed in Which Direction Now ?

Things Are About to Get Even More Interesting For Rates

It’s certainly already been an interesting year for financial markets–especially for housing and interest rates. But most of what’s happened over the past 8 months could be thought of as the more predictable phase of the post-pandemic market cycle. It’s what happens next that’ll be more interesting.

How could anyone say that the last 8 months have been predictable when rates have risen at the fastest pace in decades to the highest levels in more than 14 years? It’s true, the pace and the outright levels defied most predictions. But the predictable phenomenon was more of a general truth that we knew we’d contend with in late 2021. Here it is in a nutshell:

The Fed shifted gears on bond buying in late 2021, announcing a gradual wind-down of new bond purchases to be followed by a series of rate hikes. This shift from the Fed was always likely to coincide with rising rates and lower stock prices. The only uncertainty was the size, speed, and staying power of the shift as the Fed attempted to strike a balance between combatting inflation without crippling the economy.

See Rates from Lenders in Your Area

June’s reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI, a key government inflation report) was the only major curve ball of the year–generally thought to be a byproduct of the Ukraine War’s effect on commodities prices.  It made for a rapid reassessment of the Fed’s rate hike outlook as seen in the chart below.

The blue line is the market’s expectation of the Fed Funds Rate after the September meeting.  Note the big leap in June.  To be fair, July’s inflation report caused another jump, but it fell back quickly to the previous 2.875% range and has been there ever since.  

Longer term rate expectations (for the December meeting as well as next June’s meeting) have had more ebbs and flows due to the shift in the economic outlook.  Weaker economy = lower long-term rates, all other things being equal.  These longer-term expectations share more similarities with longer-term rates like those for mortgages.

Rates recovered nicely in July as markets feared recession, but rebounded sharply in August as data suggested a much more resilient economy.  This was especially true of the jobs report in early August as well as the ISM Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) which are like more timely, more highly regarded versions of GDP broken out by manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.  

PMI data has been responsible for several noticeable jumps toward higher rates over the past month.  The same was true this week when the non-manufacturing (or simply “services”) version came out on Tuesday morning. The services PMI was expected to move DOWN to 55.1, but instead moved UP to 56.9, effectively keeping it in “strong” historical territory whereas the market thought it was trending back down to the “moderate” level.

That’s all just a fancy way of saying that, despite GDP numbers being in negative territory, and despite aggressive Fed rate hikes, other economic indicators suggest the economy continues to expand.  The PMI data helped push US rates higher at a faster pace than overseas rates as US traders returned from the 3-day weekend, but European rates took the lead on Thursday after the European Central Bank hiked rates and warned about upside risks to the inflation outlook.

While US economic data is certainly responsible for a good amount of upward pressure in rates recently, Europe and European Central Bank policies have been adding fuel to the fire.  This can be seen in the faster rise in EU bond yields. Incidentally, the initial jump in the blue line (US 10yr) in early August coincided with several strong economic reports in the US: ISM PMIs and the Jobs Report.

Long story short, rates have topped out twice and the market knows what it looks like to see high rates in conjunction with a strong economy.  The bigger question is the extent to which inflation is calming down.  After all, inflation is the reason the Fed continues to say it’s willing to attempt to restrain economic activity via rate hikes.  Looking at the year-over-year chart, it looks like we have a long way to go for the Fed to get core inflation back down to its target.

But year-over-year data is just that.  It includes the past 12 months–many of which contribute a massive amount to a total that will inevitably be much smaller even if the economy simply maintains the current monthly pace of inflation.  In fact, core inflation only needs to move down 0.1% in the next report to put year-over-year numbers on pace to hit the target range.  Once the Fed is reasonably sure that’s happening, it can begin to consider a friendlier shift in the monetary policy that has recently put so much upward pressure on rates.

And that brings us to why things are about to get interesting.  Summer is unofficially over.  School is back in session.  Traders are back at their desks.  And next week brings the next installment of the CPI data.  6 short business days later, we’ll get the next Fed policy announcement as well as an updated rate hike projection from each Fed member.

All of the above is made all the more interesting due to the fact that the Fed–by its own admission–has no idea how much it will hike rates in 2 weeks, and that it will only be able to decide after it sees economic data.  Given that CPI is by far and away the most relevant piece of economic data between now and then AND that the Fed has a policy of abstaining from public comment starting 11 days before a meeting (aka today was the last day of Fed comments until 9/21), the market’s reaction to next Tuesday’s CPI data could be tremendously interesting indeed. 

Source:https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09102022

Mortgage Compliance – What You Need to Know About Redlining

Fair Lending compliance is a hot button issue, making it critically important that your institution has a clear sense of its fair lending risk exposure.

From the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s (OCC) supervisory priorities and speeches from officials at the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) advisory on the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) and the Justice Department’s fair lending initiative, all eyes are on fair lending.

While Fair Lending compliance can be complex, having a clearer sense of your risk exposure can make it simpler.

Uncovering fair lending risk to build a stronger fair lending program

The first thing to remember is that Fair Lending covers every stage of the crediting process — from marketing all the way to servicing.

Second, Fair Lending applies to all loans — not just HMDA loans.

And third, regardless of whether staff is officially responsible for compliance efforts, they are still responsible for supporting Fair Lending efforts and complying with Fair Lending laws and regulations.

Here are the seven primary Fair Lending risks.

Compliance Management Program Risk

Is your Fair Lending Compliance Management Program (CMP) able to effectively manage and mitigate your Fair Lending risk? The strength of your CMP needs to be commensurate with the inherent risk profile of your institution.

Redlining Risk

Redlining continues to be a major regulatory hot topic. But do you know your Redlining risk? In today’s regulatory environment, you need to.

Marketing Risk

Fair Lending extends to marketing. Financial institutions need to ensure they are marketing their services equally to similarly situated individuals. One question to consider as you assess your marketing risk is: Are we receiving applications consistent with our market demographics?

Steering Risk

As you assess steering risk, you will be looking to determine if similarly situated individuals are treated similarly. Any evaluation of steering risk will benefit from the insight provided by Fair Lending data analysis. One question to consider: Are we directing certain applicants to particular products? By analyzing your data, you’ll be able to identify any disparities.

Underwriting Risk

Underwriting risk is key area of Fair Lending risk. When analyzing your data, pay attention to the number and rate of originations and denials. As you assess your risk, look for any vague or subjective underwriting criteria or other potential for discretion in the process.

Pricing Risk

Are all similarly situated applicants receiving similar pricing? If not, you may have pricing risk exposure. As you analyze your data, you’ll be looking for incidence of rate spread, and disparities in the pricing charged. 

Servicing Risk

Consumer complaints are common during servicing, and consumer complaints can trigger regulatory attention. In analyzing your servicing risk, ensure that similarly situated individuals are being treated consistently. You’ll also want to pay attention to any disparities in loss mitigation servicing options, decision processing times, and collections processes. And be advised — even if your bank outsources servicing, you are still responsible for that third party vendor’s Fair Lending compliance.

Fair Lending is a top priority for regulators and regulatory scrutiny of Fair Lending will heighten. 

Are you aware of the Fair Lending risk in your financial institution?

Source:https://www.ncontracts.com/nsight-blog/7-fair-lending-risks-you-need-to-know-right-now

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